Business & strategy laws · law 002
Murphy's Law
Also known as: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong
By Shivam Bhandari · Reviewed 31 October 2026 · How we write
what it means
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong — so design plans, processes, and products assuming failure will eventually happen.
How Murphy's Law works
Murphy's law is less pessimism than engineering discipline: if a process allows a mistake, someone will eventually make it. Given enough repetitions, rare failures become certain.
Good businesses respond by making errors hard to commit and cheap to recover from — checklists, backups, buffers, and mistake-proofing rather than relying on everyone being careful forever.
where it comes from
Named after Edward A. Murphy Jr., an engineer working on US Air Force rocket-sled experiments (project MX981) at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, after sensors were wired backwards. The team turned his remark into a design rule.
Murphy's Law examples in business
Launch day
An online store plans for its payment gateway to fail during a festive sale and keeps a second gateway switched on. When the first one drops, orders keep flowing.
Cash
A contractor assumes at least one big client will pay late every quarter and holds a two-month cash buffer instead of running to zero.
Operations
A kitchen colour-codes chopping boards so raw meat and vegetables can never share one, instead of trusting staff memory.
How to apply it
- 1List the five steps in your business where a single failure would stop revenue.
- 2For each, ask: what is the most likely way this goes wrong, and what would it cost?
- 3Add one safeguard per step — a backup, a checklist, a buffer, or a design that makes the error impossible.
- 4Run a small fire drill once a quarter to check the safeguard actually works.
common misreading
It is not a reason to stop acting or to plan for every imaginable disaster. Protect the failures that are likely and expensive; accept the ones that are rare and cheap.
ask yourself
If your single most important supplier, system, or person disappeared tomorrow, what would break first?
put it into practice
Frequently asked questions
What is Murphy's Law?
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong — so design plans, processes, and products assuming failure will eventually happen. Murphy's law is less pessimism than engineering discipline: if a process allows a mistake, someone will eventually make it. Given enough repetitions, rare failures become certain.
Who came up with Murphy's Law?
Named after Edward A. Murphy Jr., an engineer working on US Air Force rocket-sled experiments (project MX981) at Edwards Air Force Base in 1949, after sensors were wired backwards. The team turned his remark into a design rule.
How do you apply Murphy's Law in business?
1. List the five steps in your business where a single failure would stop revenue. 2. For each, ask: what is the most likely way this goes wrong, and what would it cost? 3. Add one safeguard per step — a backup, a checklist, a buffer, or a design that makes the error impossible. 4. Run a small fire drill once a quarter to check the safeguard actually works.
What is a common misunderstanding of Murphy's Law?
It is not a reason to stop acting or to plan for every imaginable disaster. Protect the failures that are likely and expensive; accept the ones that are rare and cheap.